If we are entering a Maunder Minimum, then how would we really know given our current situation regarding an increase in Earth’s temperature over the last decade or two?  Is global warming masking global cooling?

More soon…

The reason why I bring this up is due to the jet stream of the Sun theory (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17jun_jetstream.htm) of Rachel Howe and Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory (NSO), along with the contrasting findings of  Matt Penn and Bill Livingston (both of NSO) regarding the decline of sunspot magnetism (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm?list53494).  Howe and Hill think that the Sun will come out of its Solar Minimum very soon once the Sun’s jet stream crosses the critical latitude of 22 degrees.  Penn and Livingston think possibly the opposite due to the decline of sunspot magnetism and hence prolonging the Solar Minimum.  However, say Penn and Livingston are correct and we are heading for a prolonged Solar Minimum and a possible Maunder Minimum – how would we know given today’s current Global Warming situation?  Would a cooling period caused by a Maunder Minimum even register given today’s temperatures?  And as Global Warming continues, could we be heading for a double whammy of  a shutdown of the Thermohaline circulation process of our oceans due to Global Warming along with a Maunder Minimum and cooling period of the Earth.  What if both do happen simultaneously?  Instead of a “Little Ice Age,” are we heading for something much larger?

As I check back daily at the SOHO site (http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/), I continue to wonder what will happen as the Sun continues to be very quiet.

I ran across an article titled, “Mystery of the Missing Sunspots, Solved?” by Dr. Tony Phillips, 06.17.2009 (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/17jun_jetstream.htm).  The article tells of the findings of Rachel Howe and Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) that were presented at the American Astronomical Society  in Boulder, Colorado on 17 June 2009. Apparently, the Sun has a jet stream that  is generated every 11 years.  This jet stream starts off at the poles and works it way down towards the lower latitudes of the Sun.  When the jet stream crosses the “critical” latitude  22 degrees, the formation of sunspots starts. Howe and Hill speculate that this jet stream is moving slower than normal and is taking its time getting to that “critical” latitude of 22 degrees.

Time will tell.  Given the jet stream theory along with the contrasting findings of  Matt Penn and Bill Livingston (both of NSO) regarding the decline of sunspot magnetism, I guess time will tell (around 2013) as to whether we may experience a Maunder Minimum or the start of a solar maximum.

Regardless – there is some excellent research being conducted and we are very lucky to have this star called the Sun in our backyard to observe and study!

In my last post I stated that it may be comforting to know that the NOAA-led Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel provided an update in May 2009 suggesting that our next Solar Maximum may occur in May 2013.  However, a recent NASA Science News article (http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2009/03sep_sunspots.htm?list53494) published on 3 September 2009, by Dr. Tony Phillips asks the question, “Are Sunspots Disappearing?”

What?

It seems that some new findings from Matt Penn of the National Solar Observatory, and Bill Livingston (also of NSO), both who have been measuring sunspots for the past seventeen years, are suggesting that sunspot magnetism is on the decline.  What does this mean?  Sunspots are essentially made of magnetism and only exist when the magnetic field is stronger than 1500 gauss.  If the sunspot magnetism is on the decline, then so are the sunspots.  Penn and Livingston go on to say that with the current trend extrapolated, sunspots could completely disappear by 2015.

How is this any different than the current quiet period for solar cycle 24?  I don’t know. Could it be that the sun is moving into a very long quiet period of no sunspots?  It wouldn’t be the first time that an extended quiet period of no sunspots has occurred. Apparently, during the 17th century the Sun did the same thing for a time of about 70 years.  This is known as the Maunder Minimum.

So, what next?  I guess wait and see what happens around May 2013 regarding sunspot activity.

The SOHO team (http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/) reported on 4 September 2009 that the Sun has had no sunspots for 51 days!  This nearly breaks the record of 52 days which is reported to be the longest quiet period for this solar cycle.

What is happening to our Sun?

Back in April 2007, the NOAA-led Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel suggested that “The next 11-year cycle of solar storms will most likely start next March and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012″  If this is really true, then maybe it’s no big deal about the streak of quiet periods that the Sun is currently experiencing.  It may be further comforting to know that in May, 2009, NOAA updated it Solar Cycle 24 prediction to suggest that a solar minimum occurred during December 2008, and that the next Solar Maximum will be below normal with a maximum peak of 90 sunspots, expected to occur in May 2013.